Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD aims to sustain above $1,980, investors eye Fed’s preferred inflation tool

• Gold price is looking to sustain its business firmly above $1,980.00 as investors see no rate hike in May.
• The USD Index has shown some signs of recovery from 102.00, however, the downside is still favored.
• Gold price is auctioning in a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, which is indicating volatility contraction ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation tool.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is aiming to sustain its auction above the critical resistance of $1,980.00 in the Asian session. The precious metal is looking to surpass Thursday’s high of $1,984.65 despite the US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown some signs of recovery from 102.00.

S&P500 futures have generated significant gains in the Asian session. US equities have carry-forwarded the buying spree firmly, portraying a cheerful market mood. Meanwhile, the demand for US government bonds has been trimmed further in hopes of no further casualties in the United States banking sector.

The recovery move from the USD Index has to pass plenty of filters as investors are anticipating an unchanged monetary policy stance in May by the Federal Reserve (Fed). In a private meeting with US lawmakers, Fed chair Jerome Powell cited that he anticipates one more rate hike in 2023. The statement from Fed Powell is not restricted to the May policy. Therefore, the chances of a steady monetary policy in May are extremely solid.

On Friday, the USD Index will remain in action ahead of the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data. Analysts at Wells Fargo have forecasted the PCE deflator (+0.4%) to outpace nominal spending (+0.3%).

Gold technical analysis

Gold price is auctioning in a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern on an hourly scale, which is indicating a sheer volatility contraction ahead of Fed’s preferred inflation tool. The upward-sloping trendline of the chart pattern is plotted from March 22 low at $1,934.34 while the downward-sloping trendline is placed from March 20 high at $2,009.88.

Broadly the Gold price is overlapping the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at above $1,970.00, which indicates that the consolidation is still on.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which favors more upside ahead.

Gold hourly chart