USD/CHF stays pressured towards 0.9000 as markets await NFP on Good Friday

• USD/CHF fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off 22-month low.
• Downbeat US data, mixed concerns about US recession and Fed weigh on the Swiss Franc pair.
• US NFP can propel markets amid Good Friday-induced inaction, firmer readings can renew US Dollar strength.

USD/CHF holds lower ground near 0.9040 as the US Dollar braces for the all-important US employment data on early Friday. It should be noted that the Good Friday holiday restricts the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair’s immediate moves but downbeat US data and recession woes keep the pair sellers hopeful.

That said, Thursday’s no change in the Swiss Unemployment Rate for March contrasts with a reduction in the nation’s Foreign Currency Reserves to confuse USD/CHF traders. However, downbeat US data propels recession woes and exert downside pressure on the prices.

That said, the US Initial Jobless Claims improved to 228K for the week ended on March 31 versus 200K expected and upwardly revised 246K prior. It’s worth noting that the Challenger Job Cuts for the said month rose to 89.703K from 77.77K prior. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings dropped to the 19-month low in February while the ADP Employment Change for March also disappointed markets with 145K figures. Further, the US ISM Services PMI for March also amplified pessimism as it dropped to 51.2 versus 54.5 expected and 55.1 prior.

Not only the data, but the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of economic health’s drumming of recession woes, despite the latest inaction, also favors USD/CHF bears. “Research from the Fed has argued that the ‘near-term forward spread’ comparing the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now with the current yield on a three-month Treasury bill was the most reliable bond market signal of an imminent economic contraction,” per Reuters.

On a different page, geopolitical headlines and the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) comparatively more hawkish move versus the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps the USD/CHF bears hopeful.

Moving on, the Good Friday holiday may restrict immediate USD/CHF moves ahead of today’s US jobs report. Market forecasts suggest a softer print of the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), to 240K from 311K prior, as well as no change in the Unemployment Rate of 3.6%. However, the mixed expectations for the Average Hourly Earnings make the outcome even more interesting.

Also read: Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Markets fear depressing data, three scenarios for the US Dollar

Technical analysis

Unless crossing a nine-week-old resistance line, around 0.9080 by the press time, the USD/CHF remains vulnerable to test June 2021 low of around 0.8950.