USD/MXN Price Analysis: Bears need acceptance from 18.15 support confluence

• USD/MXN remains sidelined after snapping three-day uptrend the previous day.
• Convergence of 200-HMA, three-week-old previous resistance line puts a floor under Mexican Peso pair’s price.
• Hesitance in extending trend line break, looming bull cross on MACD lures buyers; recovery remains elusive below 18.40.

USD/MXN pair treads water around 18.23 during a sluggish start of the Good Friday holidays in major bourses. In doing so, the Mexican Peso (MXN) pair struggles to extend the previous day’s downside break of an upward-sloping trend line stretched from Tuesday.

Not only the USD/MXN pair’s resistance in extending the trend line break but an impending bull cross on the MACD indicator also challenge the sellers.

Furthermore, the 200-HMA and resistance-turned-support line from mid-March, around 18.15 by the press time, acts as a tough nut to crack for the USD/MXN bears.

In a case where the pair drops below 18.15, the odds of witnessing a fresh Year-To-Date (YTD) low, currently around 17.96, can’t be ruled out.

Meanwhile, USD/MXN recovery should initially cross the three-day-old previous support line, around 18.35 at the latest, to restore intraday buyer’s confidence.

Even so, the weekly top surrounding 18.40 can act as an extra filter towards the north before giving control to the bulls.

Following that, multiple levels near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s fall from March 20 to April 03, around 18.45, can entertain the USD/MXN bulls before directing them to 18.80 and then to the 19.00 psychological magnet.

Overall, USD/MXN is yet to break the 18.15 support to convince bears. Until then, the hopes of witnessing a recovery remain on the table.

USD/MXN: Hourly chart

Trend: Recovery expected