GBP/USD extends four-day downtrend to 1.2400 despite Easter Monday holiday

• GBP/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low, extend the previous week’s pullback from 10-month high.
• Risk aversion, hawkish Fed bets underpins US Dollar rebound amid Easter Monday holiday.
• BoE Governor Bailey’s speech will be eyed closely amid receding hawkish bias from major central banks.
• US inflation, Fed Minutes and UK politics over Brexit will also be crucial to watch for clear directions.

GBP/USD takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 1.2400 during early Easter Monday morning in London. In doing so, the Cable pair drops for the fourth consecutive day as the US Dollar recovers amid the risk-off mood. Adding strength to the pullback moves could be the hawkish hopes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), versus recent doubts about the Bank of England’s (BoE) next move.

That said, fears emanating from China, mainly due to the dragon nation’s military drills near the Taiwan Strait, seem to underpin the US Dollar’s rebound. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s US visit triggered a fresh bout of US-China woes as Beijing conducts strong military drills near Taiwan Strait. “China's military simulated precision strikes against Taiwan in a second day of drills around the island on Sunday, with the island's defense ministry reporting multiple air force sorties and that it was monitoring China's missile forces,” reported Reuters.

On the other hand, recently firmer US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) allowed the Fed hawks to renew bets on the US central bank’s May-month rate hike. That said, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 236K in March, the lowest since January 2021 (considering the revisions), versus 240K expected and 326K prior. Further, the Unemployment Rate eased to 3.5% versus 3.6% prior while the Labor Force Participation Rate improved to 62.6% from 62.5%. Finally, annual wage inflation, per the Average Hourly Earnings, dropped to 4.2% from 4.6%, versus market forecasts of 4.3%. 

With this, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests 66% odds of the 0.25% rate hike in May, versus 55% before the US jobs report.

On the other hand, the Bank of England (BoE) officials appear less hawkish and the rate suggests a pause in the rate hike trajectory even as the UK inflation remains the cause of concern.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures remains directionless around 4,130, after a two-day uptrend, whereas the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields remain pressured near 3.37% and 3.95% respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day’s losses and portray the market’s rush toward the risk-safety amid economic slowdown fears.

Looking forward, the Easter Monday holiday can restrict the GBP/USD pair’s intraday moves. However, this week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be crucial for near-term directions as riskier assets seem losing their charm.

Apart from that, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s meeting with US President Joe Biden, in Northern Ireland, will join the debate on whether, when and how the ditching of European Union (EU) laws will start, in the UK’s House of Lords, to entertain the GBP/USD traders. It’s worth noting that the recently British-India ties and London’s ability to strike deals with multiple Asia-Pacific nations push back recession woes for the UK. However, the Bank of England (BoE) seems hesitant to convey the pessimism and hence Governor Bailey’s speech, up for publishing on Wednesday, will be eyed for clear directions.

Technical analysis

Unless breaking a three-week-old ascending support line, around 1.2375 by the press time, becomes necessary for the GBP/USD bears to stay off the table.