GBP/USD stays defensive above 1.2400, focus on US inflation, BoE’s Bailey and Fed Minutes

• GBP/USD struggles to extend the previous day’s rebound from one-week low, sidelined of late.
• Upbeat UK housing sales, workforce growth join mixed Fed talks to keep Cable buyers hopeful.
• IMF’s support to hawkish central bank actions, cautious mood ahead of US-UK Leaders’ Brexit talks in Northern Ireland prod bulls.
• US CPI for March, FOMC Minutes will be crucial amid receding hawkish bets on Fed’s May rate hike.

GBP/USD grinds near 1.2415-20 as bulls struggle to keep the reins during the early hours of the key Wednesday. In doing so, the Cable pair cheers broad US Dollar weakness, as well as upbeat UK fundamentals, while also portraying a cautious mood ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March and the Minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting. Also important to watch is a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey.

That said, the latest headlines from Bloomberg suggest no more tight labor markets in Britain. “The number of people available to work in the UK rose for the first time in two years, easing one of the tightest labor markets in more than a generation, a survey compiled by S&P Global showed,” said the news.

On the same line, Reuters came out with the news suggesting upbeat UK housing prices and allowed the GBP/USD buyers to remain hopes ahead of the top-tier data events. “British homes sales recovered to within a whisker of pre-pandemic levels in March, representing a recovery from September when the failed economic plan of former prime minister Liz Truss sparked turmoil across markets, a survey showed on Wednesday,” reported Reuters.

Elsewhere, the latest comments from President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neel Kashkari teases US Dollar bulls as he said, “2% inflation target should not be changed.” However, other Fed policymakers have flagged mixed concerns of late and pushed back the Cable bears. Among them, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said that the Federal Reserve will continue to look closely at available data to determine what, if any, additional actions they may need to take. Before him, New York Fed President John Williams said that if inflation comes down, we will have to lower rates. Furthermore, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, said on Tuesday that they need to be cautious about raising interest rates after recent development in the banking sector.

It should be observed that the IMF revised down global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for 2023 to 2.8% from 2.9% in January's report. However, the global lender defends the major central banks’ fight against inflation and fails to offer any major signals for the GBP/USD pair traders.

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures remain directionless after a mixed Wall Street close while the US Treasury bond yields grind higher and prod the US Dollar sellers.

Moving on, the market forecasts suggest the headlines CPI to ease to 5.2% YoY versus 6.0% prior while the FOMC Minutes need to defend the rate hike trajectory to stop the GBP/USD bulls. Also important to watch is the meeting between US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister (PM) Rishi Sunak in Northern Ireland (NI).

Technical analysis

Although a one-week-old descending resistance line restricts immediate GBP/USD upside near 1.2445, the Cable pair’s downside remains elusive unless it stays beyond an ascending support line from late March, close to 1.2370 by the press time.