NZD/USD rebounds on risk-on sentiment amidst mixed US inflation data

• NZD/USD advanced after the US CPI dipped, despite the core CPI remaining unchanged.
• FOMC minutes showed that the banking crisis in the US put into the table a pause in the tightening cycle.
• NZD/USD Price Analysis: The upside could be capped by daily EMAs, but once cleared, it can rally to 0.6300.

The NZD/USD made a U-turn and climbs after the latest FOMC minutes flashed that Fed officials were eyeing a pause on their tightening campaign. Also, US inflation figures mixed keep investors leaning towards a riskier asset, as shown by Wall Street about to finish with minimal gains. At the time of writing, the NZD/USD is trading at 0.6217.

FOMCs gave mixed signals, on a pause and a larger hike

During the recent Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, officials discussed the possibility of holding rates unchanged following the failure of two regional banks. This decision was motivated by concerns that further tightening could cause financial stress. Despite this, participants agreed that the Fed’s measures had helped ease worries in the banking sector. These measures were similar to those the Bank of England took after the bond turmoil resulting from former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s mini-budget. Against this backdrop, the Fed’s latest meeting supported a 25 basis point rate hike.

Participants commented that inflation is still above the 2% goal and that inflation pressures were “abating at a pace sufficient to return inflation to 2% over time.” Some Fed members noted that they considered a 50-basis point increase if there was not a banking crisis. Furthermore, Fed policymakers observed, “that inflation remained much too high and that the labor market remained too tight.”

Earlier, an inflation report from the US revealed that headline CPI dropped from 6% in February to 5% annually. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained at 5.6% YoY, unchanged.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD snapped two days of consecutive losses and is forming a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. Although the pattern suggests that further upside is expected, the NZD/USD needs to clear a busy resistance area, with the 20, 100, and 50-day EMAs, at 0.6235, 0.6240, and 0.6246, respectively. Once that area is cleared, the NZD/USD could rally toward the February 14 high at 0.6389.