WTI crude oil rebounds from three-week low to $77.50 as markets brace for key US data

• WTI picks up bids to pare the biggest daily loss in a week.
• Fears of cut in output by the key Oil refiners, cautious optimism in market underpin recovery moves.
• Surprise draw in API inventories adds strength to recovery moves.
• EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, US Durable Goods Orders eyed for clear directions.

WTI crude oil pares the biggest daily loss in a week around $77.50 heading into Wednesday’s European session as market sentiment improves ahead of the key US data, as well as the weekly official Oil inventory numbers.

Adding strength to the rebound can be the headlines suggesting a likely production cut from the key refiners due to fears of lesser demand. That said, Tuesday’s surprise draw in the Oil inventories, as per the industry source American Petroleum Institute (API), also underpins the WTI crude oil recovery.

It’s worth noting that the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in -6.083M for the week ended on April 21 versus -2.675M prior.

On the other hand, Bloomberg flags fears of further decline in the Oil output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, correctively known as OPEC+, by citing deterioration in oil-refining profits over the last few weeks.

It’s worth mentioning that upbeat earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet join US President Joe Biden’s warning to use the veto to avoid the US default also underpin the cautious optimism in the market and trigger a corrective bounce in the black gold prices.

“President Biden on Tuesday threatened to veto legislation being pushed by House Republican leaders that would condition support for raising the debt ceiling on deep spending cuts, calling it “a reckless attempt to extract extreme concessions as a condition for the United States simply paying the bills it has already incurred,” per the Washington Post.

Previously, fresh banking fears, triggered through the First Republic Bank (FRB), joined the US debt ceiling talks and mixed US data to prod the market sentiment and drown the WTI Crude Oil.

Moving on, the WTI crude oil traders should pay attention to the official US stockpile data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), as well as the US Durable Goods Orders for March, expected to improve to 0.8% versus -1.0% prior, for clear directions. Above all, the market’s risk appetite and the US Dollar moves will be crucial for the Oil traders to watch.

Technical analysis

Although the 100-DMA level of around $76.90 restricts short-term WTI crude oil downside, the energy bulls remain cautious unless the quote stays below the early-month swing low surrounding $79.50.