NZD/USD sticks to gains near multi-week high, looks to build on momentum beyond 200 DMA

• NZD/USD climbs to a multi-week high on Thursday, albeit struggles to capitalize on the move.
• A goodish USD bounce, along with a softer risk tone cap the upside for the risk-sensitive Kiwi.
• The fundamental backdrop favours bulls and supports prospects for further near-term gains.

The NZD/USD pair prolongs its uptrend for the third successive day on Thursday, also marking the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six, and climbs to a nearly three-week high. The pair maintains its strong bid tone, around the 0.6260-0.6265 area through the early North American session, with bulls looking to build on the momentum beyond a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to draw support from the upbeat domestic jobs data released on Wednesday, which backs the case for further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Adding to this, hawkish remarks by RBNZ Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby, saying that the underlying economy has strength and New Zealand banks are well-positioned to support customers, act as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. That said, a goodish US Dollar (USD) recovery from over a one-week low touched earlier this Thursday keeps a lid on any further gains, at least for the time being.

Signs of stress at another US regional bank, PacWest Bancorp, sparks fears of a full-blown banking crisis in the US. Apart from this, looming recession risks temper investors' appetite for riskier assets. this is evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, which helps revive demand for the safe-haven Greenback. That said, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) less hawkish outlook might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and continue to lend some support to the NZD/USD pair. As was widely expected, the US central bank on Wednesday opened the door for a possible pause in June.

In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at the post-meeting press conference, signalled that the US central bank was close to hitting the terminal rate of the current hiking cycle. Furthermore, data released this Thursday showed that the US Initial Weekly Jobless Claims rose more than expected, to 242K during the week ending April 29 from the previous week’s 229K (revised from 230K). This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD is to the downside and supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for the NZD/USD pair ahead of the US monthly jobs report (NFP) on Friday.

Technical levels to watch