When is Australia Q1 Retail Sales and how could it affect AUD/USD?

Retail Sales Overview

Early Tuesday, the market sees preliminary readings of Australia's Retail Sales for the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 at 01:30 GMT. Market consensus suggests a softer print of -0.4% QoQ versus -0.2% prior, suggesting a challenge for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hawks after a surprise rate hike.

Given the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest hawkish surprise despite softer Aussie inflation data and challenges to sentiment, today’s Aussie Retail Sales data appears crucial for the AUD/USD traders.

How could it affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD retreats from a three-week high while snapping a six-day uptrend ahead of the data. With this, the Aussie pair aptly portrays the market’s cautious mood, as well as the doubts about the RBA’s hawkish action, ahead of the key data. Also exerting downside pressure on the quote is the US Dollar rebound while tracing firmer yields amid mixed sentiment in the markets.

That said, the recent chatters surrounding the Aussie recession, amid fears of comparatively higher rates in Australia than the US and likely easing in economic activities, keeps AUD/USD bears hopeful ahead of the key Aussie Q1 Retail Sales figures. It’s worth noting that the Westpac Consumer Confidence for May slumps to -1.7% versus 9.4% and signals the quote’s further downside in case the scheduled Retail Sales figures offer negative surprise, or match downbeat forecasts.

Technically, the 100-DMA hurdle of around 0.6790 joins the nearly overbought RSI (14) line on the daily chart to challenge the AUD/USD bulls. Adding strength to the upside filters is the horizontal area comprising levels marked since mid-February, around 0.6800.

Key Notes

AUD/USD drops to near 0.6780 ahead of Australian Retail Sales and US debt-ceiling talks 

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears take on bulls at key support 

AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie challenges 0.6800, a key area

About Australian Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.