GBP/USD recalls BoE-induced fall to 1.2500 on downbeat UK GDP, US inflation clues eyed

• GBP/USD picks up bids to pare BoE induced losses after upbeat UK growth, activity data.
• UK Q1 GDP matches downbeat market forecasts on QoQ and YoY basis, per preliminary estimations.
• US Dollar consolidates Thursday’s gains ahead more inflation clues.
• Hopes of avoiding US default, absence of major disappointment from banks favor corrective pullback.

GBP/USD takes offers to renew intraday low near 1.2500 as it bears the burden of the disappointing UK data heading into Friday’s London open. In doing so, the Cable pair fails to cheer the US Dollar’s consolidation of the biggest daily jump in two months ahead of the key US data. It’s worth noting, however, that the US inflation clues and risk catalysts are still capable of recalling the Cable bears.

That said, the preliminary readings of the UK’s first quarter (Q1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) mark 0.1% QoQ growth versus 0.1% expected and prior readouts. That said, the monthly GDP for March, however, dropped -0.3% compared to 0.0% market forecasts and previous readings. Further, the British Manufacturing and Industrial Production details for March marked mixed outcomes.

Also read: UK Preliminary GDP expands 0.1% QoQ in Q1 2023, as expected

Due to the mostly downbeat British data, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreat from the weekly high to 102.00 by the press time fails to put a floor under the Cable pair. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies marked the biggest daily gains in two months the previous day. However, expectations of recovery in China's inflation data and hopes of witnessing softer US inflation clues join an absence of fresh disappointment from the US banking, debt-ceiling front to underpin the DXY’s latest corrective pullback.

It’s worth noting that the latest easing in the UK data joins the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey’s hopes of witnessing a sharp fall in inflation to weigh on the GBP/USD prices.

Looking forward, the first readings of the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for May, as well as the UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations for the said month, will also be important to watch for clear directions. Should the US inflation precursors match downbeat forecasts, the GBP/USD may have another chance to rebound, given the risk appetite remains even.

Technical analysis

Unless providing a daily closing beyond a two-month-old previous support line, around 1.2540 by the press time, the GBP/USD buyers remain off the table. The Cable pair’s fresh selling needs validation from an upward-sloping trend line from late March, around 1.2500 round figure at the latest.