AUD/JPY slides 50 pips on downbeat Aussie employment, mixed Japan trade data

• AUD/JPY remains pressured around intraday low after easing from eight-day top.
• Australia employment report, Japan trade numbers for April prod the cross-currency pair buyers.
• Qualitative catalysts will be the key for direction due to pair’s risk-barometer status, light calendar.

AUD/JPY takes offers to refresh intraday low near 91.20 while marking a nearly 50 pips of quick fall on the downbeat Aussie jobs report for April on early Thursday. Also weighing on the cross-currency pair are the downbeat yield and cautious mood in the market.

Australia’s headline Employment Change marked a surprise figure of -4.3K in April versus 25K expected and 53K prior whereas the Unemployment Rate jumps to 3.7% from 3.5% prior.

Also read: Breaking: Aussie Employment, -4.3K, below expectations (25K) in April

Earlier in the day, Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance Total improved to ¥-432.4B for April versus ¥-613.8B expected and ¥-755.1B prior. However, the Imports and Exports for the said month eased to -2.3% and 2.6% YoY compared to -0.3% and 3.0% market forecasts, as well as 7.3% and 4.3% priors in that order.

On Wednesday, Australia’s Wage Price Index repeated 0.8% QoQ figures for the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, below the 0.9% market consensus, whereas the YoY numbers improved to 3.7% versus 3.6% expected and 3.3% previous readings. On the other hand, Japanese economic growth came in as 0.4% versus 0.1% expected and 0.0% prior, per the preliminary reading of the first quarter (Q1) 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.

It should be noted that the market’s risk-on mood, mainly inspired by the receding fears of the US default seemed to have fuelled the AUD/JPY run-up the previous day. Additionally, hopes of more investment from China also underpinned the cross-currency pair’s recovery as the state planner National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China (NDRC) mentioned on Wednesday that it'll take measures to unleash consumption potential and to make continuous efforts in stabilizing and expanding manufacturing investment.

However, a lack of incentive for further upside, as well as a cautious mood ahead of the key Aussie data and doubts on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish bias, recently allowed the risk-barometer pair to consolidate the weekly gains.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses despite the upbeat Wall Street close whereas the US Treasury bond yields remain sidelined at the multi-day top. That said, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields rose to the highest levels since May 01 and April 24 while portraying a four-day uptrend near 3.57% and 4.16% respectively, easing to 3.55% and 4.13% by the press time.

Moving on, a light calendar might help the AUD/JPY to consolidate recent gains if the market sentiment deteriorates further.

Technical analysis

AUD/JPY retreat appears elusive unless the pair trades successfully below a one-week-old ascending support line, close to 90.55 by the press time. Meanwhile, the 50-DMA restricts immediate upside around the 92.00 round figure. Overall, MACD and RSI (14) conditions suggest further grinding of prices toward the north.