NZD/USD Price Analysis: Rising wedge, 200-HMA probe Kiwi pair’s NZ budget-inspired rise

• NZD/USD remains on the front foot around intraday high inside weekly rising wedge.
• Gradually improving RSI conditions suggest further grinding of Kiwi pair towards the north.
• 200-HMA, fortnight-old horizontal hurdle challenge NZD/USD bulls.
• Clear break of 0.6240 can recall sellers targeting monthly low.

NZD/USD remains firmer around the weekly top as it prints mild gains near 0.6265 during the second consecutive positive day heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Kiwi pair stays within a bearish chart formation called a rising wedge comprising multiple levels marked since the last Friday.

However, the gradual uplift of the RSI (14) line, not overbought, keeps the NZD/USD buyers hopeful of defying the stated bearish chart formation by crossing the 0.6275 upside hurdle.

Even so, the 200-HMA and a fortnight-old horizontal resistance area, respectively near 0.6285 and 0.6315, can prod the NZD/USD bulls before directing them to the monthly peak of 0.6385.

It’s worth noting that tops marked in February and April highlight the 0.6385-90 area as a short-term key hurdle for the pair to cross. Also acting as an important upside barrier is the 0.6400 round figure.

On the contrary, a downside break of the 0.6240 mark comprising the stated wedge’s lower line can confirm the bearish chart pattern, which theoretically suggests a fall towards the monthly of near 0.6160.

However, the latest swing low and the previous monthly bottom, close to 0.6180 and 0.6110, act as additional downside filters for the NZD/USD pair traders to watch during the quote’s further declines.

Overall, NZD/USD is likely to grind higher but the bearish chart formation and the key Hourly Moving Average (HMA) prod the bulls.

NZD/USD: Hourly chart

Trend: Limited upside expected