EUR/USD directionless on mixed FOMC minutes
24.05.2023, 18:18

EUR/USD directionless on mixed FOMC minutes

  • EUR/USD bulls holding the fort in support territory after FOMC minutes. 
  • Fed minutes show officials split on support for more hikes.

EUR/USD is mixed on the Federal Open Market Committee minutes that show the board members agreed that inflation risks are still unacceptably high but officials also generally agreed that the extent of further hikes are less certain. EUR/USD was testing 1.0750 and the lows of the day on the knee-jerk but has since turned up into the 1.0760s in anew 15-min cnadle. 

FOMC minutes, key notes

  • Some participants commented that additional policy firming would likely be warranted at future meetings.
  • Some participants stressed it was crucial that policy that the statement not signal the likelihood of rate cuts this year or rule out further hikes.
  • Fed staff continue to forecast mild recession starting later this year, followed by a modestly-paced recovery.
  • several participants said if the economy evolved along lines of their outlooks, further policy firming might not be needed.
  • Participants generally agreed that the extent to which further interest rate hikes may be appropriate had become less certain.
  • Many participants focused on need to retain optionality after may meeting.
  • Participants judged that the banking sector stress would likely weigh on economic activity, but to an uncertain extent.
  • Participants agreed that inflation was unacceptably high, and are declining slower than they had expected.
  • Some participants noted concerns that the federal debt limit may not be raised in timely manner, threatening significant financial system disruptions, tighter financial conditions.

Overall, the Fed minutes show officials split on support for more hikes. As su8ch, the market is directionless. 

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD is under pressure in the main but the FOMC minutes have not given the bears much in the way of any conviction and therefore, until the price can break 1.0720 convincingly, bulls could be encouraged. However, bulls will need to get above a slew of resistance and into the 1.08 areas, as per the 4-hour chart analysis:

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