EUR/GBP pierces 0.8600 from below on hawkish ECB bets, Eurozone GDP, Employment data eyed

• EUR/GBP grinds near intraday high during the first positive day in three.
• Markets pare fears of recession in the bloc amid mixed sentiment, political pessimism in the UK also propel EUR/GBP.
• Mixed signals about BoE rate hike contrast with ECB concerns to favor pair buyers.
• Revised prints of EU Q1 GDP, central bank comments eyed for clear directions ahead of next week’s ECB.

EUR/GBP snaps two-day losing streak as buyers prod the 0.8600 round figure, mildly bid around 0.8605 heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair takes clues from the recently firmer calls suggesting the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate hikes versus the market’s indecision about the Bank of England’s (BoE) next move, considering the latest hints surrounding the UK.

On Wednesday, Germany’s Industrial Production (IP) improved to 0.3% MoM versus 0.6% market forecasts and -2.1% prior (revised) whereas the yearly growth figures ease to 1.6% from 2.3% (revised) previous readouts and 1.2% expected.

Considering the data, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Isabelle Schnabel pushes back the recent dovish concerns by stating that the impact of our tighter monetary policy on inflation is expected to peak in 2024. However, ECB policymaker, Klaas Knot, said that prolonged monetary tightening might still lead to stress in financial markets, which in turn prod ECB hawks. The ECB Official also added, “Inflation expectations in markets seem optimistic.”

It’s worth noting that the UK’s Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) released a survey, funded by the global quant giant KPMG, earlier on Thursday saying that Britain's labor market cooled further in May as starting salaries for permanent staff rose at the weakest pace in over two years. As the recruiters involved in the survey are the ones being closely watched by the Bank of England (BoE) and hence the results appear more important for the EUR/GBP pair traders.

Alternatively, another poll of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) hints that the measure of new buyer inquiries rose to a net balance of -18, the least negative figure since -14 in May 2022, and up from -34 in April, per Reuters. On the same line, a fading optimism about UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s diplomatic US visit, mainly due to an absence of any major deal news, also favors the EUR/GBP buyers.

Looking ahead, the revised version of the Eurozone first quarter (Q1) 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to ease to 0.0% QoQ and 1.2% on YoY, will join the likely unimpressive Unemployment Change to entertain the intraday traders of the EUR/GBP.

Technical analysis

Unless providing a daily close beyond the previous support line from May 11, now immediate resistance around 0.8635, the EUR/GBP remains pressured towards the yearly low marked the last week around 0.8590.