EUR/USD Price Analysis: Consolidates near two-week high, setup favours bullish traders

• EUR/USD consolidates Thursday’s strong move up to over a two-week high.
• Acceptance above the 1.0745-50 confluence hurdle favours bullish traders.
• A convincing beak below the 1.0700 mark will negate the positive outlook.

The EUR/USD pair is seen consolidating the previous day's strong gains to over a two-week high and oscillating in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.0775-1.0780 region and seem poised to build on the recent bounce from the 1.0635 region, or the lowest level since March 20 touched last week.

The overnight sharp rise confirms a breakout through the 1.0745 confluence - comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall witnessed in May and a short-term descending trend-line. This, in turn, favours bullish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. That said, technical indicators on the daily chart - though have recovered from the negative territory - are yet to confirm a bullish outlook. Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront some resistance near the 1.0800 round-figure mark, representing the 38.2% Fibo. level.

Some follow-through buying, however, will set the stage for additional gains and lift the EUR/USD pair to the next relevant hurdle near the 1.0860 region. The latter represents the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibo. level, which if cleared decisively will suggest that the recent pullback from over a one-year high touched in May has run its course. Spot prices might then aim to surpass the 1.0900 round figure and test the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the 1.0915-1.0920 zone.

On the flip side, the 1.0750-1.0745 confluence resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 1.0700 mark. This is closely followed by an upward sloping trend-line, currently pegged near the 1.0680 region, below which the EUR/USD pair could slide back towards the May monthly swing low, around the 1.0635 area. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag spot prices below the 1.0600 mark, towards testing the 1.0540-1.0535 intermediate support en route to the 1.0500 psychological mark.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Key levels to watch