EUR/GBP retreats from 0.8600 on upbeat UK employment data, unimpressive German inflation

• EUR/GBP eases from intraday high as Pound Sterling rises past UK data.
• UK Claimant Count Change slumps, ILO Unemployment Rate eases.
• Final readings of Germany’s inflation, per HICP, remains unchanged to 6.3% YoY in May.
• Market’s cautious mood ahead of US inflation limits reaction to the British job numbers, German inflation data.

EUR/GBP reverses from intraday high as it pares the daily gains to around 0.8590, with a quick 20-pip fall, heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair suffers from unimpressive statists Germany and price favoring UK jobs report.

That said, the UK Claimant Count Change for May slumped to -13.6K versus -9.6K expected and 46.7K prior, whereas the ILO Unemployment Rate for three months to April 3.8% compared to 3.9% previous readings and 4.0% market forecasts.

Earlier in the day, the UK Incomes Data Research (IDR) came out with the research paper, shared via Reuters, which said, “The median pay settlement awarded by major British employers had increased to 5.6% in the three months to April, the highest in records dating back to 2005 and up from 5.0% in the three months to the end of March.”

While the aforementioned news should have weighed on the EUR/GBP price, another survey from the Chartered Institute of Personnel Development (CIPD) showed British workers were feeling less optimistic about work than in 2019 and considered their jobs to be more "transactional" and just a means to earn money compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. The same seems to have put a floor under the cross-currency pair’s price.

On the other hand, final readings of Germany’s inflation for May, per the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), remain unchanged to 6.3% YoY. Given the easing inflation pressure in the bloc’s powerhouse, the odds of the ECB’s dovish hike gain acceptance and exert downside pressure on the EUR/GBP price.

Looking ahead, a speech from the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey becomes more important after today’s UK data. Following that, the UK’s monthly data dump and second-tier EU statistics may entertain ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting. Also important to watch will be the German and European ZEW Survey details for June.

Technical analysis

EUR/GBP rebound appears elusive unless it stays within a seven-week-old bearish trend channel, currently between 0.8515 and 0.8620.