NZD/USD hits fresh multi-week high, around mid-0.6100s ahead of US CPI

• NZD/USD regains positive traction on Tuesday and climbs to a nearly three-week high.
• A combination of factors weighs on the USD and remains supportive of the momentum.
• Traders now look to the US CPI for a fresh impetus ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday.

The NZD/USD pair attracts fresh buying near the 0.6100 round-figure mark on Tuesday and builds on its steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session. The momentum lifts spot prices to a nearly three-week high, around the 0.6155 region in the last hour, and is sponsored by renewed US Dollar (USD) selling bias.

In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, dives to its lowest level since May 18 and continues to be weighed down by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will skip raising interest rates in June. In fact, the recent dovish rhetoric by a slew of FOMC members lifted bets for an imminent pause in the US central bank's year-long policy tightening cycle. This, in turn, leads to a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields, which is seen undermining the buck and acting as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair.

Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets is seen as another factor weighing on the safe-haven USD and benefitting the risk-sensitive Kiwi. That said, worries about a global economic slowdown, particularly in China, might keep a lid on the optimism. Furthermore, surprise rate hikes by other major central banks - the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) - last week suggested that the fight against inflation is not over yet. This, in turn, has been fueling speculations about another 25 bps lift-off by the Fed in July.

This, along with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) explicit signal that it was done with its most aggressive hiking cycle since 1999, might hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets around the NZD/USD pair. Investors might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures, due later during the early North American session. The crucial US CPI report will influence the next policy move by the Fed, which is scheduled to announce the outcome of the highly-anticipated two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

Technical levels to watch