WTI recovers to near $68.50, upside seems restricted ahead of Fed policy

• Oil prices have shown a solid recovery from $67.00, however, the upside seems restricted.
• Solidifying hopes of a recession in the US economy might force the black gold for a nosedive move.
• Consistent weak factory activity in Eurozone has bolstered hopes of a continuation of contraction in the quarterly GDP.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, have displayed a stellar recovery after finding significant support near $67.00 in the European session. The recovery move in the oil price seems restricted as investors are awaiting the announcement of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which will be announced on Wednesday.

The street is cautious about Fed’s policy as further policy-tightening stance by Fed chair Jerome Powell would propel fears of a recession in the United States. The oil price is still going through the pain of bleak demand in China and higher chances of a recession in the Eurozone. And, solidifying hopes of a recession in the US economy might force the black gold for a nosedive move.

The situation of deflation in consumer and producer data in China indicates that weaker domestic demand and exports are weighing significant pressure on factory activity. Firms are underutilizing their capacity despite supportive monetary and fiscal policies by the Chinese administration.

On the Eurozone front, the German economy has already marked a recession. A display of contraction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures consecutively for two times is considered a technical recession. And, in the final reading of Eurozone Q1 GDP, the contraction has been noticed. Consistent weak factory activity in Eurozone has bolstered hopes of a continuation of contraction in GDP.

Before the Fed’s policy, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be keenly watched. Analysts at RBC Economics expect annual growth in the US CPI to slow substantially to 4.1% in May from 4.9% in April. Gas prices were 20% below year-ago levels in May. Oil prices are down after surging in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And soaring food inflation has cooled in recent months with back-to-back MoM declines in grocery prices over March and April.  A case of surprisingly higher US inflation might weigh significant pressure on the oil price.