- Analiza
- Novosti i instrumenti
- Vesti sa tržišta
- Fed Preview: Three scenarios and their implications for the US Dollar Credit Suisse
Fed Preview: Three scenarios and their implications for the US Dollar Credit Suisse
Economists at Credit Suisse discuss the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and its implications for the US Dollar.
Fed surprises with a 25 bps hike (25% odds)
The Fed might find it easier to simply hike again and point to data dependency being a real thing and dominating over its recent language. Clearly, in this situation, the knee-jerk reaction would be a stronger USD. The Fed would need to signal a willingness to keep going even after a hike today and/or also raise materially the “dots” profile (by at least 25 bps for ’23 and ’24 medians) for the USD to build on knee-jerk gains.
Fed holds rates steady but with a hawkish message (65% odds)
This could involve either flagging strongly a 25 bps hike in July or alternatively using other elements like the ‘dots’ to signal hawkishness. Equity market strength is one reason to expect the market to price out quite as fast and deep a Fed cutting cycle from Q4 ’23 onwards as it had priced in. This especially benefits the USD against low / falling yielders like JPY and CNH, and helps support our existing USD/JPY 145.00 near-term target and also our view that USD/CNH can rise easily towards 7.30.
Fed holds rates steady with a dovish message (10% odds)
This scenario involves the Fed stressing the dovish elements of recent data only and signaling strongly that rates may have already peaked and/or have room to fall quickly, using a combination of language and ‘dots’ that are surprisingly low. Such an outcome would be USD-bearish across the board.
© 2000-2025. Sva prava zaštićena.
Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.
Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.
Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.
Банковни транcфери
