EUR/JPY jumps to a new cycle high post-ECB decision

• EUR/JPY pierces through 153.50 for the first time since 2008.
• ECB hiked rates by 25 bps and hinted at more increases.
• BoJ is expected to take the dovish path on Friday.

The EUR/JPY sets four-day winning strike trading at 153.55 as the Euro rallied against most of its rivals on Thursday following the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. In that sense, Christine Lagarde’s hawkish comments in the presser hinting at more hikes, fueled the Euro’s rally. 

Rising German Bond yields favour the Euro

On Thursday, the ECB increased the main financing rate to 4.00%, the marginal lending to 4.25% and the deposit facility rate to 3.50%, all by 25 basis points as expected. Regarding the updated macroeconomic forecast, the central bank expects the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to pick up later this year. They consider inflation will remain high, at least until 2025. 

Looking forward, Christine Lagarde mentioned in the presser, that they are “not done yet”, and that there is still “more ground to cover”, stating that she is not satisfied with the progress being made. In relation to the recent deceleration of inflationary pressures in the Eurozone (EZ), she considered it as “broad-based” and that the central bank should focus on the long-term inflation expectations. All in all, she also confirmed that it is “very likely” that the ECB will hike again in July.

As a reaction, the German yields rose across the curve. The 10-year bond yield climbed to 2.46%, seeing a daily increase of 1.34%, while the 2-year yield stands at 3.13%, gaining 2.80%.

On the other hand, investors await the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision on Friday. The central bank is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged.

EUR/JPY Levels to watch

Based on the daily chart, the EUR/JPY holds a clear bullish bias in the short term, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are both deep in positive territory, suggesting a strong upward momentum. However, the pair reached overbought conditions and uncharted territory, suggesting that a downward correction may be on the horizon.

If EUR/JPY manages to move higher, the next resistances to watch are at the 153.80 area, followed by the psychological mark at 154.00 and the 154.50 zone. On the other hand, in case the cross loses ground, support levels line up at the psychological mark at 152.00,the 150.50 area and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 150.05.

EUR/JPY Daily chart