Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD shifts above $24.00 as Fed’s interest rate peak uncertainty fades

• Silver price has comfortably shifted above $24.00 as the USD Index remains weak.
• The USD Index is facing pressure as investors are not agreeing that the Fed will hike rates two times more this year.
• Fed Barkin has commented that raising rates further could create the risk of a more significant slowdown in the economy.

Silver price (XAG/USD) has shifted its auction comfortably above the crucial resistance of $24.00 in the early New York session. The white metal has got strengthened as investors have found clarity about Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate peak for now.

S&P500 is expected to open on a positive note considering bullish cues from overnight futures. Market mood is quite cheerful as uncertainty about the interest rate peak has receded after the display of the dot plot by Fed chair Jerome Powell.

The upside in the US Dollar Index (DXY) seems restricted around 102.30 amid the risk-appetite theme. In June’s monetary policy statement, Fed Powell confirmed that two more interest rate hikes are appropriate this year. However, investment banking firm Morgan Stanley sees no more hikes and expects the Fed to hold the rate at 5.1% till it undertakes a 25 bps cut in March 2024.

Meanwhile, Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin has commented that raising rates further could create the risk of a more significant slowdown in the economy, as reported by Reuters. He further added, "Comfortable doing more on interest rates if coming data doesn't confirm a story that slowing demand is returning inflation to the 2% target."

Silver technical analysis

Silver price is struggling to surpass the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (plotted from May 26 low at $22.68 to June 09 high at $24.53) at $24.10 on a two-hour scale. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $23.88 is providing support to the Silver bulls.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is looking to shift into the bullish range from the bearish range of 20.00-60.00. An occurrence of the same will activate the upside momentum.

Silver two-hour chart