USD/CAD prods yearly bottom below 1.3200 as US Dollar fails to cheer hawkish Fed clues, Oil price rally

• USD/CAD remains depressed at the lowest level in nine months after falling the most in a week.
• US Dollar licks its wounds after snapping three-day uptrend despite hawkish testimony of Fed Chair Powell.
• WTI seesaws around two-week high after notable rally on softer US Dollar, hopes of more Oil demand.
• Risk catalysts eyed for clear directions, Powell’s testimony 2.0 in focus.

USD/CAD stays on the back foot at the lowest levels since September 2022, after refreshing the yearly low with the biggest daily fall in a week the previous day. That said, the Loonie pair licks its wounds near 1.3160 as markets seek more clues to extend the latest fall amid firmer Oil price and the US Dollar weakness.

US Dollar Index (DXY) printed the first daily loss in four the previous day despite hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s bi-annual testimony to the US House Financial Services Committee. The reason could be linked to the absence of any fresh comments, as well as contrasting statements from other Fed Officials.

On Wednesday, Fed’s Powell advocated for raising interest rates somewhat further by year-end. The policymaker also exemplified decelerating a car near the destination while saying, "It may make sense to move rates higher, at a more moderate pace." Even so, the Fed’s Powell mentioned, "We are very far from our inflation target." That said, most of the statements from Fed’s Powell were replicas of the last week’s FOMC statement and hence failed to impress the black gold buyers despite weighing on the US Dollar.

It should be noted that comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee prod US Treasury yields and triggered the US Dollar weakness as he said that the decision last week was a close call for him. The central bank has to “do more sniffing” before another rate hike, Fed’s Goolsbee added.

Elsewhere, WTI crude oil jumped more than 1.0% to refresh the two-week high around $72.70, close to $72.50 by the press time, as hopes of more stimulus from China and increased US refining capacity lured Oil buyers, especially amid downbeat US Dollar. That said, the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) rate cut joins the Chinese Ministry of Finance's announcement of tax incentives to suggest more demand from the world’s biggest commodity user. Additionally, the weekly inventory draw and the first recovery in the US Oil refining capacity, after a two-year downturn, favor the energy buyers.

Alternatively, fears of the global economic slowdown and escalating US-China tension, after Beijing hits back at US President Joe Biden’s criticism of its Chinese counterpart, prod the USD/CAD bears.

Additionally, expectations that Fed Chair Powell may use tactics to convince markets of his hawkish capacity, after failing the previous day, also lures the Loonie pair buyers at the multi-day low.

Technical analysis

Failure to extend the bounce off the 1.3180-75 support region directs the USD/CAD bears toward the tops marked in May and June of the last year, close to the 1.3080-75 zone.