AUD/USD Price Analysis: Fades post Aussie Retail Sales rebound, focus on 0.6545, Fed Chair Powell

• AUD/USD retreats from intraday high, fades Aussie data inspired gains at three-week low.
• Australia Retail Sales triggered corrective bounce with 0.7% MoM jump in May but inflation-linked woes are stronger.
• Bearish MACD signals, sustained trading below 200-DMA and challenges to sentiment weigh on prices.
• Convergence of ascending support line from October, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement appears a tough nut to crack for bears.

AUD/USD pares the biggest daily loss since early March, despite retreating from an intraday high to around 0.6605 amid early Thursday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Aussie pair eases from the daily tops while reversing Australia Retail Sales data-linked gains but stays mildly bid by the press time.

It’s worth noting that a surprise jump in the Aussie Retail Sales, to 0.7% MoM for May, offered breathing space to the bears after the Australian Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) disappointed the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hawks the previous day. However, fears of hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell seem to weigh on the AUD/USD price.

Technically, the risk-barometer pair’s U-turn from the 200-SMA, around 0.6695 by the press time, joins bearish MACD signals to keep the AUD/USD pair sellers hopeful.

However, the below-50.0 levels of the RSI (14) suggest bottom-picking of the Aussie pair, which in turn highlights the 0.6550-45 support confluence comprising the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October-February north run and eight-month-old rising support line.

In a case where the AUD/USD drops below 0.6545, the odds of witnessing a slump towards the yearly low marked in May around 0.6460 can’t be ruled out.

Alternatively, a downward-sloping trend line from June 16, around 0.6675 at the latest, restricts the immediate upside of the AUD/USD pair ahead of the 200-SMA level of around 0.6695.

That said, the 0.6700 round figure also acts as an additional upside filter before directing the price to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the monthly high, respectively near 0.6780 and 0.6900.

AUD/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Further downside expected