EUR/USD grinds higher past 1.0900 ahead of Fed Minutes, NFP

• EUR/USD stays defensive after posting consecutive three quarterly gains.
• Market’s lack of conviction in Fed’s hawkish bias, softer US inflation signals underpin Euro pair’s recovery.
• ECB policymakers’ defense of rate hike clues, despite less market acceptance, also propel EUR/USD price.
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI, final readings of June’s Eurozone, Germa HCOB PMIs eyed for intraday directions.

EUR/USD struggles to defend the previous weekly, as well as monthly and quarterly, gains as traders begin the key week on a cautious not around 1.0910-15 amid early Monday in Asia. In doing so, the Euro pair reassess the recent odds favoring the buyers ahead of the top-tier data/events from the US.

On Friday, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge prod hawkish expectations from the US central bank with the smallest yearly gain in six months. The same joined absence of any major hawkish comments from the US central bank officials, after a slew of Fed statements earlier in the last week, to prod the EUR/USD bulls. Even so, the major currency pair ended the last week, month and quarter on the positive side.

That said, US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, for May, came in at 0.3% MoM and 4.6% YoY versus market expectations of reprinting the 0.4% and 4.7% figures for monthly and yearly prior readings.

On the other hand, the preliminary Eurozone HICP rose to 0.3% MoM versus 0.0% expected and prior while the yearly figures eased to 5.5% from 5.6% market forecasts and 6.1% previous readings. Further, the Core HICP also softened to 0.3% MoM and 5.4% YoY from 0.7% and 5.5% expected respectively, versus 0.2% and 5.3% prior in that order.

It’s worth noting that the European Central Bank (ECB) tried defending their rate hike bias but softer inflation data and looming fears of Germany’s recession restrict markets from believing in them, which in turn test the EUR/USD bulls. Alternatively, the US data isn’t also too impressive but the Fed policymakers are comparatively more hawkish and have been received well.

Hence, EUR/USD traders may witness hardships in extending the latest recovery should this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary policy meeting Minutes and the US jobs report offer upbeat signals. It’s worth noting that today’s final readings of Germany and Eurozone HCOB PMIs for June and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for the said month will entertain intraday traders.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond a downward-sloping resistance line from June 22, close to 1.0920 by the press time, becomes necessary for the EUR/USD bulls to retake control.