USD/INR Price Analysis: Hangs near two-month low, seems vulnerable below 82.00 mark

• USD/INR remains under some selling pressure for the second successive day on Tuesday.
• The recent breakdown through the 82.15 confluence supports prospects for further losses.
• A sustained strength beyond last week’s swing high is needed to negate the bearish outlook.

The USD/INR pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the 81.75 area, or a two-month low and meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade just below the 82.00 mark, down 0.10% for the day, and seem vulnerable to slide further amid subdued US Dollar (USD) price action.

The recent breakdown through the 82.15 confluence - comprising the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and an upward sloping trend-line extending from November 2022 - validates the negative outlook for the USD/INR pair. Moreover, technical indicators on the daily chart are holding in the bearish territory and are still far from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, supports prospects for an extension of the recent downfall from the vicinity of the 83.00 round figure mark.

Some follow-through selling below the overnight swing low, around the 81.75 region, will reaffirm the bearish bias and make the USD/INR pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide towards the next relevant support near the 81.50 zone. The downward trajectory could get extended further towards testing sub-81.00 levels or the YTD low touched in January.

On the flip side, the 82.15 confluence support breakpoint might now act as an immediate strong resistance ahead of last week's swing high, around the 82.25 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter might shift the bias in favour of bullish traders and lift the USD/INR pair back towards the 82.70-82.75 intermediate hurdle. Spot prices might then make a fresh attempt to conquer the 83.00 round-figure mark.

USD/INR daily chart

Key levels to watch