EUR/GBP bounces off intraday low towards 0.8550 on upbeat German Factory Orders but BoE’s Bailey pokes bulls

• EUR/GBP picks up bids to recover from the lowest levels in two weeks.
• German Factory Order jumps in May, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey cites qualitative measures to tame inflation.
• Concerns about the need for a strong BoE rate hike contrasts with mixed EU data to keep sellers hopeful.
• Eurozone Retail Sales, risk catalysts eyed for clear directions.

EUR/GBP recovers from the lowest level in two weeks while bracing for the first daily gains in three around 0.8545 amid the early hours of the European trading session on Thursday. In doing so, the cross-currency pair cheers strong German Factory Orders data. However, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey seems to challenge the corrective bounce, despite failing of late.

Germany’s Factory Orders jump 6.4% MoM in May versus 1.5% expected and -0.4% prior whereas the yearly figures improve to -4.3% from -9.9% previous readouts.

On Wednesday, the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) declines to -1.5% YoY for May versus -1.3% expected and 0.9% prior (revised) whereas the monthly readings came in as -1.9% for the said month compared to -1.8% expected and -3.2% previous readings. Further, the final readings of Eurozone and German HCOB Composite PMIs for June ease to 50.6 and 49.9 versus 50.8 and 50.3 initial forecasts respectively. Further, the HCOB Services PMIs appear less worrisome as it matches the flash predictions of 54.1 for Germany but drops to 52.0 from 52.4 preliminary expectations.

On the other hand, BoE’s Bailey cites the need for more regulations on retail prices by saying that some retailers charge higher prices from customers. It’s worth noting that the “Old Lady”, as the BoE is informally known, is likely to propel the benchmark rates amid strong inflation but the recently softer activity data seem to prod the British Pound (GBP) buyers.

That said, UK’s S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI and Services PMI both match initial forecasts of 52.8 and 53.7 preliminary forecasts for June.

It’s worth noting that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest monthly survey of consumer expectations for inflation suggests that inflation expectations among Eurozone consumers decreased further in May. However, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank Chief Joachim Nagel, as well as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz both suggest higher rates.

Looking forward, Eurozone Retail Sales for May, expected to deteriorate to -2.7% YOY from -2.6% prior, can recall the EUR/GBP bears. However, either a no change or firmer prints of the UK’s final readings of S&P Global Construction PMI for June, expected 50.9 versus 51.6 prior, becomes necessary for the same.

Technical analysis

EUR/GBP recovery remains elusive unless crossing the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.8640. That said, a downward-sloping support line from September 2022, close to 0.8515 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears.