WTI is testing key structure both ways in NFP volatility

• WTI bulls move in as US Dollar weakness further following NFP.
• WTI makes fresh highs and technicals flip bullish again. 

WTI has been volatile in Friday's New York trade, travelling with little sense of direction between $71.24 and $72.36 on the day so far. The US Dollar and risk appetite is the driver following today's Nonfarm Payrolls report. 

The US Dollar is suffering in the face of a weaker-than-expected headline in NFP.

Nonfarm Payrolls 

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose 209,000 in June, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 225,000. May's increase of 339,000 got revised lower to 306,000. 

The Unemployment Rate edged lower to 3.6% from 3.7% as expected and the annual wage inflation, as measured by the Average Hourly Earnings, stood unchanged at 4.4%, compared to analysts' estimate of 4.2%. Finally, the Labor Force Participation Rate held steady at 62.6%, while the Unemployment Rate fell 0.1% to 6.9% from 6.7%.

''We continue to expect that the surge in interest rates since early 2022 will slow demand for workers before driving unemployment higher later this year. But easing in labour demand has not yet shown up in any of the headline numbers,'' analysts at RBC Economics said.

''As noted in the meeting minutes for the last FOMC decision in June, policymakers still view current labour market conditions as too tight, and wage gain too elevated for inflation to sufficiently return to the 2% target over time. We expect the Fed to hike the fed funds rate by 25 bps in July.''

Despite the mixed data, the November Fed hike odds dropped to 39% from 45% after Nonfarm Payrolls and the Greenback is on the back foot, benefitting the oil price as follows: 

WTI technical analysis