AUD/USD retreats from 200-day SMA barrier, weaker USD limits any meaningful slide

• AUD/USD once again fails ahead of the 200-day SMA barrier near the 0.6700 mark.
• The USD drops to a two-month low and helps limit any meaningful slide for the pair.
• A generally positive risk tone further acts as a tailwind for the risk-sensitive Aussie.

The AUD/USD pair continues with its struggle to make it through the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and attracts some intraday selling in the vicinity of the 0.6700 mark on Tuesday. Spot prices retreat to the lower end of the daily range, around the 0.6680-0.6675 region, though lack follow-through and remain well within a familiar trading band held over the past week or so.

The modest intraday pullback, meanwhile, lacks any obvious fundamental catalyst and is more likely to remain cushioned in the wake of the prevailing bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD). Speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has limited headroom to keep raising rates and is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle drag the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to a two-month low. This, in turn, should act as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair and help limit any meaningful slide.

The closely-watched US employment details released on Friday showed that the economy added the fewest jobs in 2-1/2 years in June and indicated that the labor market is cooling. Furthermore. the New York Fed's monthly survey revealed on Monday that the one-year consumer inflation expectation dropped to 3.8% in June - the lowest level since April 2021. This could allow the US central bank to soften its hawkish stance, which leads to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields and continues to undermine demand for the buck.

Apart from this, a stable performance around the equity markets further dents the Greenback's relative safe-haven status and should benefit the risk-sensitive Aussie. That said, repeated failures near a technically significant 200-day SMA make it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before placing fresh bullish bets around the AUD/USD pair. Traders also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures on Wednesday, which will influence the near-term USD price dynamics.

Technical levels to watch