EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Bears take command and threaten the 154.00 zone

• EUR/JPY continues its downward trajectory falling below the 154.50 level as technical indicators stand in the red.
• Weak ZEW survey data from Germany from July weakened the Euro.
• BoJ’s monetary policy tweak expectations may give the JPY support.

In Tuesday’s session, the EUR/JPY cross continued its downward path as the Yen strengthened agains its major rivals. On the other hand, poor ZEW survey data seems to make the Euro difficult to find demand.

BoJ pivot expectations make the JPY gain ground. Eyes on economic data

Despite markets expecting the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to maintain its monetary policy unchanged in its July meeting, economists at Rabobank believe they will offer some signal of when the policy may be adjusted with the adjusted macroeconomic forecast. As for now, wages, which the bank closely watches, increased in May in Japan so all eyes will be on the next set of economic activity data. Also, China’s Trade Balance data on Thursdays will be the focus as it is one of Japan's main trading partners.

In that sense, on Wednesday, the May Machine orders report will be published, and analysts predict a 0.1% year-on-year growth, which is an improvement compared to April's decline of -5.9%. Additionally, the June Producer Price Index (PPI) data is expected to be released, indicating a year-on-year rate of 4.3%, lower than the previous rate of 5.1%.

On the Euro’s side, Germany reported soft ZEW July data. The Expectations Survey came in at -14.7 vs -10.6 expected, the Current Situation at -59.5, slightly above the consensus of -60.00 and overall, market sentiment is deteriorating as Germany slips into a recession.

EUR/JPY Levels to watch

The current analysis of the daily chart suggests a shift towards a bearish outlook in the short term as selling pressure escalates. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen into negative territory for the first time since March, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints growing red bars indicating the bears are in command.

Support Levels: 154.00,153.40,153.00.
Resistance Levels: 156.00 (20-day Simple Moving Average),156.50, 157.00.

EUR/JPY Daily chart