Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD surpasses $23.80 as US CPI cools down significantly

• Silver price has climbed above $23.80 as the US inflation has softened more than expected.
• Fed Barkin still believes that more interest rate hikes are appropriate for confirmation that inflation will return to 2% target.
• Silver price has delivered a breakout of the Rising Channel chart pattern.

Silver price (XAG/USD) has overstepped the crucial resistance of $23.80 quickly as the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June has landed softer-than-expectations. The monthly headline and core inflation were recorded at a moderate pace of 0.2% against expectations of a 0.3% pace.

On an annualized basis, headline inflation posted a deceleration to 3.0% vs. the consensus of 3.1% and the former release of 4.0%. Core CPI that excludes volatile oil and food prices has eased sharply to 4.8% than the estimates of 5.0% and the prior figure of 5.3%.

Investors would keenly watch commentaries from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers to understand whether the current pace of decline in inflation data is sufficient to discourage the Fed from hiking interest rates further. Considering past commentary from Fed chair Jerome Powell, two more interest rate hikes are appropriate by the year-end.

Following US inflation data, Richmond Fed Bank President has stated that more policy tightening is warranted if incoming data does not confirm that inflation will go down to the desired target. He pointed out that a relevant question is whether inflation can settle while the labor market remains as strong as it is.

Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have added stellar gains post significant softening of price pressures as decelerated inflation data has receded fears of a recession in the United States. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dived to near the critical support of 101.00 as investors are hoping that Fed policymakers would re-discuss the monetary policy roadmap.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price has delivered a breakout of the Rising Channel chart pattern on a two-hour scale, which indicated immense strength in bulls. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $23.10 is consistently providing support to the Silver bulls.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has jumped into the 60.00-80.00 range, indicating that the bullish momentum has been triggered.

Silver two-hour chart