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- USD/CNH remains focused on 7.1500 – UOB
USD/CNH remains focused on 7.1500 – UOB
USD/CNH could slip back to the 7.1250 level once 7.1500 is breached, comment UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang.
Key Quotes
24-hour view: Yesterday, we indicated that “barring a break above 7.2260, USD is likely to break below 7.1800.” We also indicated that “7.1500 is unlikely to come into view.” In line with our expectations, USD did not break above 7.2260. It broke below 7.1800 and fell to a low of 7.1617. Today, we see chance for USD to test 7.1500 before the risk of a rebound increases. This time around, the next support at 7.1250 is unlikely to come into view. On the upside, if USD breaks above 7.1940 (minor resistance is at 7.1800), it would indicate that USD is not weakening further.
Next 1-3 weeks: Three days ago (10 Jul), when USD was trading at 7.2230, we noted that “short-term downward momentum is building rapidly and the risk of USD pulling back below 7.1800 has increased.” Yesterday (12 Jul, spot at 7.2070), we highlighted that “Downward momentum has improved further and If USD breaks below 7.1800, the focus will shift to 7.1500.” In line with our view, USD broke below 7.1800 (low of 7.1617 in NY trade). The focus is at 7.1500 now. Looking ahead, the next support is at 7.1250. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 7.2150 from 7.2500.
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