- Analiza
- Novosti i instrumenti
- Vesti sa tržišta
- Volatility downtrend is over, bumpier markets are likely – SocGen
Volatility downtrend is over, bumpier markets are likely – SocGen
Misery – defined as the unemployment rate plus inflation – is falling sharply in the US and more slowly in Europe. Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes the implications for financial markets.
Can beating inflation be painless?
Risky assets would clearly benefit from a recession-free escape from inflation. The Dollar wouldn’t. Nor would the Dollar benefit from a mild recession that allowed European misery to melt away without too much pain (and the ECB to go on hiking after the Fed was finished).
But the tail risk that the Fed is encouraged to pause then pivot and stop raising rates, only to see tight labour markets drive a fresh upturn in underlying inflation next year, is now a real risk. That outcome, scuppering European recoveries and forcing the Fed to drive the economy in a late 2024 recession, may be a tail risk but it’s a big enough one to underpin FX volatility going forwards.
We think the volatility downtrend is over and bumpier markets are likely.
© 2000-2025. Sva prava zaštićena.
Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.
Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.
Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.
Банковни транcфери
