USD/CNH bulls attack 7.1700 on mixed China data, geopolitical concerns

• USD/CNH picks up bids to extend Friday’s recovery from one-month low.
• China Q2 GDP eases to 0.8% QoQ, Industrial Production improved but Retail Sales dropped in June.
• Mixed concerns about China’s ties with other nations prod market sentiment, allowing US Dollar to lick its wounds.
• US Retail Sales, risk catalysts eyed for clear directions.

USD/CNH renews its intraday high near 7.1720 after China fails to defy the market’s downbeat concerns with its mixed data published early Monday. Also fueling the offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) pair could be the US Dollar’s corrective bounce amid downbeat sentiment, as well as the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) defense of the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rates.

China’s second quarter (Q2) 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 0.8% QoQ versus 0.5% market forecasts and 2.2% prior whereas the GDP YoY figures rose past the previous readings of 4.5% to 6.3%, versus analysts’ estimations of 7.3%. Further, the Industrial Production growth jumped to 4.4% YoY in June, compared to the 2.7% expected and 3.5% prior, whereas the Retail Sales slumped to 3.1% from 12.7% prior and 3.2% market consensus. It should be noted that China’s June survey-based Jobless Rate for 24-year-olds jumped to a record high of 21.3%. Additionally, the PBoC keeps one-year MLF rate unchanged at 2.65%.

Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cited the fears of short-term firmer inflation clues to underpin the US Dollar Index rebound from the multi-month low, which in turn allowed USD/CNH to recover. Adding strength to the pair’s corrective bounce are the political fears surrounding China, flagged by comments from New Zealand Prime Minister (NZ) Chris Hipkins and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Furthermore, US climate envoy John Kerry arrived at the Beijing Hotel in the Chinese capital on Monday for talks with his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua, per Reuters. The policymaker’s initial comments were grim as he suggested that China and the US must make real progress in the little more than 4 months left before COP28.

Additionally, Friday’s US data and the Fed blackout period also allow the USD/CNH to recover. That said, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index rose to 72.6 from 64.4 in June, versus the market’s expectations of 65.5. Further details suggested that the one-year and 5-year consumer inflation expectations per the UoM survey edged higher to 3.4% and 3.1% in that order versus 3.3% and 3% respective priors. Before that, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for June dropped to 3.0% and 0.1% on a yearly basis from 4.0% and 0.9% YoY in that order, which in turn drowned the US Dollar.

While portraying the mood, the S&P500 Futures print mild losses whereas the US Treasury bond yields remain sidelined amid Japan’s holiday.

Moving on, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for June may direct intraday moves of the USD/CNH pair but major attention will be given to the US Retail Sales and Sino-US headlines.

Technical analysis

Despite bouncing off the 50-DMA, at 7.1320 by the press time, the USD/CNH bulls need validation from the support-turned-resistance line stretched from early June, close to 7.1800 at the latest, to restore the market’s confidence.