AUD/USD holds ground above the 0.6790 mark, eyes on Sino-US relations

• AUD/USD holds ground above the 0.6790 area on Wednesday.
• Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its policy tightening cycle.
• Market players will keep an eye on the development of Sino-US relations.
• The Australian Employment Change and Employment Change reports will be due later this week.

The AUD/USD pair loses traction and holds ground above the 0.6790 mark heading into Wednesday’s European session. The major pair currently trades around 0.6795, down 0.24% for the day. Investors digest the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes and monitor Sino-US relations.

Following the softer US inflation data and easing labour market conditions, market players anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its policy tightening cycle and will maintain interest rates following the widely expected 25 basis points (bps) in the July meeting. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets have nearly fully priced in a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in July. The probability of another rate hike in December is approximately 20%.

Additionally, the data released on Tuesday showed that US Industrial Production fell 0.5% in June for the second consecutive month. This figure was lower than the market expected of no change. Meanwhile, Retail Sales increased 0.2% MoM from June to $689.5 billion. This report came in below the market consensus of a 0.5% gain. 

On the Australian Dollar front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes released in Asia suggested that further policy tightening may be necessary. However, the policymakers will reconsider at the August policy meeting.

About the US-China headline, China's defense minister, Li Shangfu, said during a meeting with senior US diplomat Henry Kissinger in Beijing on Tuesday that the US should exercise sound strategic judgment in dealing with China. Market players will keep an eye on the development of Sino-US relations for fresh impetus.

Looking forward, Australia will release the Employment Change and Employment Change on Thursday. Market participants will also take cues from US Housing Starts and Unemployment Claims. These data would have a significant impact on the pair and help determine the next direction for the AUD/USD pair.