EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls flirt with 100-hour SMA support breakpoint, around 1.1225 area

• EUR/USD catches fresh bids on Thursday and recovers the overnight losses to a multi-day low.
• The emergence of fresh selling around the USD turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind.
• The technical setup warrants some caution for bulls and positioning for further intraday gains.

The EUR/USD pair regains positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a major part of the previous day's slide to the 1.1175 area, or a multi-day low. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1225 region, up over 0.20% for the day, though remain well below the highest level since February 2022 touched on Tuesday.

The US Dollar (USD) meets with some supply and for now, seems to have stalled its recent bounce from a 15-month low as market participants continue to price out the possibility of any further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) beyond July. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair, though less hawkish remarks by several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers this week could cap any meaningful gains, at least for the time being.

From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown through a three-week-old trading range and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) warrants some caution before placing fresh bullish bets around the EUR/USD pair. Hence, some follow-through buying beyond the 1.1245-1.1250 region is needed to support prospects for a further intraday appreciating move. Spot prices might then climb back to test the multi-month peak, around the 1.1275 region, and aim to reclaim the 1.1300 mark. The upward trajectory could get extended towards the 1.1335 hurdle en route to the 1.1400 round figure.

On the flip side, weakness back below the 1.1200 mark now seems to find some support near the overnight swing low, around the 1.1175-1.11700 region. The next relevant support is pegged near the 1.1145 zone, below which the EUR/USD pair could extend the downward trajectory further towards the 1.1100 round figure. The latter should act as a strong base for spot prices, which if broken decisively would negate the near-term positive outlook and pave the way for a deeper corrective decline.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart

Key levels to watch