AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Cross three-week-old resistance to regain 95.00 on strong Aussie jobs data

• AUD/JPY jumps more than 50 pips to cross short-term key resistance line amid risk-on mood, firmer Aussie data.
• Australia Employment Change rose by 32.6K versus 15K expected, Unemployment Rate eased to 3.5% from 3.6% anticipated and previous readings.
• PBoC keeps benchmark rates unchanged but eased cross-border funding restrictions, US-China tensions renew.
• Convergence of 100-SMA, 200-SMA appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls’ sellers need validation from 94.00.

AUD/JPY remains on the front foot around 95.00, after rallying nearly 50 pips on better-than-forecast Australian employment data for June and the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) inaction on early Thursday. That said, the cross-currency pair’s latest run-up surpasses a three-week-old descending resistance line and joins the upbeat RSI (14) line to lure the pair buyers amid upbeat Aussie data.

Australia’s headline Employment Change rose by 32.6K versus 15K expected and 75.9K prior whereas the Unemployment Rate eased to 3.5% compared to the market’s forecast of staying unchanged at 3.6%.

On the other hand, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its benchmark Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged during today's Interest Rate Decision. That said, the one-year and five-year LPRs are held intact at 3.55% and 4.20% respectively at the latest. The Chinese central bank, however, eased restrictions on cross-border funding by lifting the adjustment parameter for firms to 1.5 from 1.25.

Technically, the AUD/JPY pair’s upside break of the aforementioned resistance line allows it to prod the convergence of the 100-SMA and 200-SMA, around 95.15-20. However, the quote’s further upside appears difficult as the falling trend line on the RSI (14) doesn’t comply with the latest trend line breakout on the prices.

In a case where the AUD/JPY pair rises past 95.20, the mid-month high of around 95.40 and the monthly peak surrounding 96.85 can lure buyers.

On the contrary, pullback remains elusive unless the quote stays beyond the resistance-turned-support line of around 94.70.

Following that, an upward-sloping support line from early June and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s June 01-16 upside, near the 94.00 round figure, will be crucial to break for the AUD/JPY bears before retaking control.

AUD/JPY: Four-hour chart

Trend: Limited upside expected