EUR/USD licks its wounds above 1.1100 after refreshing weekly low on strong US Dollar

• EUR/USD steadies at weekly bottom after falling the most in two months, printing three-day downtrend.
• Drops US Jobless Claims, downbeat tech sector performance favor yields, US Dollar.
• Upbeat Eurozone Consumer Confidence, EC Economic Projections fail to impress Euro bulls amid mixed ECB concerns.
• Second-tier data, risk catalysts may entertain intraday traders ahead of the key week comprising ECB, Fed Interest Rate Decision.

EUR/USD remains on the back foot as bears take a breather at the lowest level in a week, especially after falling the most in two months the previous day. That said, the Euro pair seesaws around 1.1130 after posting a three-day losing streak on firmer US Dollar, as well as mixed concerns about the US Dollar.

On Thursday, US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 228K for the week ended on July 14, the lowest since May, versus 237K prior and 242K market forecasts but the Continuing Jobless Claims rose to 1.754M for the said period compared to market forecasts of reprinting 1.729M figures. Additionally, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey gauge improved to -13.5 for July from -13.7 prior, versus -10 expected while Existing Home Sales slumped -3.3% MoM in June compared to 0.2% prior gain.

Earlier in the week, US Building Permits and Housing Stars also repoted downbeat figures for June whereas the Retail Sales growth eased despite posting upbeat details of Retail Sales Control Group for June.

While looking in totality, the US statistics haven’t been impressive to support the Fed in announcing more rate hikes past July in the next week, which in turn challenge the US Dollar bulls even as the greenback braces for the first weekly gain in three by edging off the 15-month low.

Not only the US data but a recovery in the Treasury bond yields, mainly backed by the downbeat tech sector earnings and a falling US benchmark equity indices, also propel the US Dollar and weigh on the EUR/USD.

At home, Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for June improved to -0.3% MoM versus -0.4% expected and -1.4% prior whereas the preliminary readings of the Eurozone Consumer Confidence for July edged higher to -15.1 from -16.1 prior and -16.0 market forecasts. Furthermore, European Commission (EC) revised the bloc’s first quarter (Q1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate up 0.1% to 0.0%.

Despite the latest upbeat Eurozone data, the ECB policymakers and a study on the latest trend in the bloc, as shared by Reuters, suggest that the economic fears are gaining momentum, which in turn push back the ECB hawks and flag concerns of the central bank’s policy pivot. The same exerts downside pressure on the Euro.

Looking ahead, a light calendar may allow the Euro pair to consolidate the first weekly loss in three should the market sentiment improves. However, the cautious mood ahead of the next week’s monetary policy decision of the ECB and the Fed may not allow the risk appetite, as well as the EUR/USD, to rise much.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD pair’s failure to cross the 1.1280 hurdle, joins the clear downside break of a fortnight-old ascending trend line, now resistance around 1.1310, to direct bears toward the April’s high of around 1.1095.