USD/CNH renews weekly bottom near mid-7.1600s as China takes multiple measures to defend Yuan

• USD/CNH stays pressured around weekly low, down for the second consecutive day.
• Chinese authorities, PBoC roll-up sleeves to defy fears of slowing economic growth.
• US Dollar’s retreat ahead of Fed, light calendar also exert downside pressure on Yuan pair.
• Risk catalysts are the key to determining near-term directions ahead of next week’s FOMC.

USD/CNH justifies the Chinese policymakers’ efforts to defend the Yuan, as well as push back economic fears, by refreshing the weekly low near 7.1650 during early Friday. In doing so, the offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) pair also benefits from the US Dollar’s retreat even as the quote prints the 7.1710 mark by the press time.

Be it the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) or the state planner National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), not to forget China Human Resource Ministry and Forex Regulator, all of them tried to keep the Yuan on the front foot in their latest attempts.

PBoC defended the Yuan by disappointing markets by setting the USD/CNY fix more than 400 pips down versus major forecasts. With this, the Chinese central bank acts boldly for the second consecutive day to defend the onshore Yuan (CNY).

Elsewhere, the state planner NDRC announced multiple measures to bolster automobile consumption while the Human Resource Ministry said that the nation created 6.78 million new urban jobs in the first half of 2023, achieving 57% of the target. On the same line, China's FX regulator also praised the nation’s bond market and anticipated more stable and sustainable investment in the bond market.

Previously, fears of witnessing downbeat China growth join the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) efforts to defend the world’s second-biggest economy to prod the USD/CNH bears, together with the firmer US Dollar. Additionally challenging the pair sellers were the PBoC moves as it kept the benchmark Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged during Thursday’s Interest Rate Decision but took measures to lure global investment.

On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) jumped the most in a month to refresh the weekly top the previous day before recently retreating to 100.80. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies portrays the market’s positioning for the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting announcements after cheering mostly upbeat US job clues. That said, US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 228K for the week ended on July 14, the lowest since May, versus 237K prior and 242K market forecasts but the Continuing Jobless Claims rose to 1.754M for the said period compared to market forecasts of reprinting 1.729M figures. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey gauge improved to -13.5 for July from -13.7 prior, versus -10 expected while Existing Home Sales slumped -3.3% MoM in June compared to 0.2% prior gain.

It should be noted that the US Building Permits and Housing Stars also reported downbeat figures for June whereas the Retail Sales growth eased despite posting upbeat details of Retail Sales Control Group for June. Despite the recently upbeat US employment clues, the US statistics haven’t been impressive to support the Fed in announcing more rate hikes past July in the next week, which in turn can challenge the US Dollar bulls.

Amid these plays, the Wall Street benchmark closed in the red but the S&P500 Futures remain indecisive after reversing from the yearly high. Further, the US Treasury bond yields refreshed their weekly highs the previous day and propelled the US Dollar before the latest retreat.

Moving on, a light calendar requires the USD/CNH pair traders to observe the risk catalysts for intraday directions.

Technical analysis

Unless providing a daily closing beneath a three-month-old rising support line, close to 7.1680 at the latest, the USD/CNH remains on the bull’s radar.