AUD/USD bears approach 0.6700 on mixed Australia PMI, focus on US data, Fed for clear directions

• AUD/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low after downside Australia PMI for July.
• Preliminary readings of Australia S&P Global PMIs for July came in mostly downbeat even as manufacturing gauge improves.
• Market’s pre-Fed fears, US Dollar’s sustained recovery also weigh on Aussie pair.
• US PMIs will direct intraday moves but Australia inflation, US Q2 GDP and Fed will be crucial for clear guide.

AUD/USD renews an intraday low to around 0.6725 despite the mixed Australian activity data for July. In doing so, the Aussie pair takes clues from the below 50.0 levels of the PMIs, as well as portrays the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key week comprising top-tier data/events. That said, the upbeat jobs report from Australia failed to impress the pair buyers in the last week amid broad US Dollar strength.

Australia’s preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI improves to 49.6 from 48.2 prior but the Services PMI drops below 50.0 level to 48.0 versus 50.3 prior, suggesting a contraction in the activities. With this, the S&P Global Composite PMI for July eases to 48.3 from 50.1.

It’s worth noting that the Aussie employment numbers posted a stellar jump for June in the last week and renewed bullish bias for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). On the same line was the hawkish RBA Minutes for the latest monetary policy meeting where the policymakers paused the rate hike trajectory. However, the broad US Dollar strength, backed by upbeat US data and preparations for this week’s Fed meeting weighed on the AUD/USD price.

During the last week, United States housing numbers and regional manufacturing indices were mostly downbeat but an improvement in the Retail Sales Control Group for June allowed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to rebound from a 15-month low, as well as post the first weekly gain in three. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies seesaw around 101.00 amid a sluggish start to the key week.

Previously, the upbeat prints of the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index and consumer inflation expectations for July helped the greenback to challenge the bearish bias. It’s worth noting, however, that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for June joined the first below-expectations Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in 15 months to tease the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy pivot past July and drowned the US Dollar.

Hence, the last improvement in the US Retail Sales appears less convincing and hence this week’s top-tier US data, as well as the Fed monetary policy meeting announcement, will be crucial for clear directions of the AUD/USD pair. That said, preliminary readings of the US S&P Global PMIs for July will direct intraday moves of the Aussie pair and may keep the bears hopeful amid a likely improvement in the data versus the mostly downbeat Australia activity figures. However, major attention will be given to Australian inflation, the first readings of the US second-quarter (Q2) 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech for clear directions as the Fed’s 0.25% rate is almost given.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beneath the 200-DMA level of 0.6720, as well as a seven-week-old rising support line surrounding 0.6710, becomes necessary for the AUD/USD bear’s conviction.