EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1100 mark, eyes flash Euro Zone/US PMIs for some impetus

• EUR/USD oscillates in a narrow trading band above 1.1100 through the Asian session on Monday.
• Investors prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key FOMC and the ECB meetings this week.
• Heading into the crucial central bank event risks, the flash PMI prints might provide some impetus.

The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading band around the 1.1125-1.1130 area through the Asian session. Spot prices manage to hold above over a one-week low touched on Friday as traders now seem to have moved to the sidelines ahead of this week's key central bank event risks.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce the outcome of the highly-anticipated two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps. This will be followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday, which should allow investors to determine the near-term trajectory for the EUR/USD pair. In the meantime, doubts that the Fed will commit to a more dovish policy stance assist the USD to stick to its recent recovery gains from the lowest level since April 2022 touched earlier this month and act as a headwind for the major.

he shared currency, on the other hand, is undermined by the fact that European Central Bank (ECB) officials recently delivered mixed signals regarding the next policy move after the anticipated 25 bps lift-off this week. Even a more hawkish ECB policymaker, Klaas Knot said that rate hikes later this year may not be necessary. The minutes of the June ECB meeting, however, showed that the Governing Council is determined to continue the current hiking cycle to curb stubbornly high inflation. Moreover, investors seem convinced that the ECB will increase borrowing costs in July and September.

This, in turn, might hold back traders from placing aggressive directional bets and should help limit any meaingful downside for the EUR/USD pair, at least for the time being. Market participants now look to the release of the flash PMI prints from the Euro Zone and the US to grab short-term opportunities. Any immediate market reaction, however, is more likely to remain limited. This makes it prudent to wait for a sustained break below the 1.1100 round figure before positioning for an extension of the recent retracement slide from the highest level since February 2022 touched earlier this month.

Technical levels to watch