NZD/USD edges higher past 0.6200 as firmer sentiment weighs on US Dollar ahead of Fed

• NZD/USD bulls take a breather after two-day winning streak.
• US Dollar fails to cheer upbeat CB Consumer Confidence, housing data and firmer yields as markets brace for Fed.
• Hopes of witnessing more stimulus from China, nearness to policy pivot at major central banks bolster market sentiment of late.
• No major data at home, required Kiwi traders to watch Aussie Inflation, risk catalysts for probable signals.

NZD/USD remains on the front foot around 0.6220 despite the latest pre-Fed inaction amid early Wednesday morning in Asia. That said, the Kiwi pair rose in the last two consecutive days amid a risk-on mood and the US Dollar’s pullback ahead of the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting announcements.

Chinese policymakers' signal for another round of heavy stimulus to defend the world’s second-largest economy from losing the post-COVID recovery seemed to have favored the market sentiment, especially in the Asia-Pacific zone on Tuesday. On the same line could be the recently downbeat statistics from the major economies which flag the end of the rate hike trajectory at the key central banks. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) upward revision to the global growth forecasts also helped improve the market sentiment and the NZD/USD price.

With the risk-on mood dimming the US Dollar’s haven demand, the greenback dropped the previous day. Apart from the firmer sentiment, Reuters’ news stating China state banks’ defense of the Yuan (CNY), by selling the US Dollar, also seemed to have weighed on the US Dollar. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed from a two-week high by falling to 101.26 at the latest.

While portraying the mood, Wall Street benchmarks closed on the positive side for the second consecutive day while the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to the highest levels in three weeks before ending Tuesday’s trading near 3.89%.

Talking about the US data, US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence jumped to 117.0 for July from 110.10 prior (revised) versus market forecasts of 112.10. The survey details unveiled that the one-year consumer inflation expectations edged lower to 5.7% while the Present Situation Index and  Consumer Expectations Index rose to 160.0 and 88.3 in that orders for the said month. That said, the US Housing Price Index for May reprinted the 0.7% MoM growth compared to analysts’ estimation of 0.2% whereas the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices also repeated the -1.7% YoY figures for the said month versus -2.2% expected.

Looking ahead, a light calendar at home and the pre-Fed anxiety may allow the NZD/USD pair to consolidate the recent gains. However, Australia’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, as well as for the second quarter (Q2), can join the risk catalysts to entertain the Kiwi pair.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond an eight-day-old descending resistance line, now immediate support around 0.6200, directs NZD/USD prices towards June’s high of near 0.6250. That said, the 50-DMA level of near 0.6170 acts as a strong downside support to watch for the quote’s weakness past 0.6200.