USD/JPY holds below the 141.00 mark ahead of FOMC decision

• USD/JPY loses momentum and holds below the 141.00 area in the early Asian session.
• Market anticipated that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would hike rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25–5.50%.
• The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged on Friday.

The USD/JPY pair drops below the 141.00 area after retreating from weekly highs of 141.81 ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. A 25 basis point (bps) rate hike is expected. However, market participants will keep an eye on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell press conference, which could hint at some clues about the possibility of interest rate guidance for the entire year. The major pair currently trades around 140.94, gaining 0.03% on the day.

About the data, the US Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased to 117.0 in July from 110.1 (revised from 109.7), beating the market consensus. The one-year inflation expectation declined to 5.7%. Meanwhile, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 1.7% YoY in May, while the FHFA's House Price Index climbed 0.7% MoM.

That said, the Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by another quarter-point on Wednesday. It is widely anticipated that the Fed will increase interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25–5.50%. However, investors will take cues from the messaging in the monetary policy statement. A hawkish stance from the Fed could trigger the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

On the Japanese Yen front, the Cabinet Office said that inflation is seen at around 0.7% from 2027 to 2032, while for 2023 is expected at 2.6% and 1.9% in 2024. In terms of economic growth, the GDP figure is seen at 1.3% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy on Friday. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda put an end to speculation of a Yield Control Curve policy change and stated that there was still work to be done before the inflation objective of 2% was reached. 

These comments suggest that Japanese policymakers will likely maintain a dovish stance in order to keep inflation above 2% and are expected to keep their monetary policy unchanged on Friday. BoJ officials added that central banks prefer to examine more data before adjusting monetary policy. The monetary policy divergence between the BoJ and Fed might exert pressure on the Japanese Yen against its major rivals and could be a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Looking ahead, market players are now closely watching the Fed's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. This key event could trigger volatility across financial markets. The focus will shift to the BoJ meetings scheduled for Friday. Investors will monitor this development and find opportunities around the USD/JPY pair.