EUR/USD retakes 1.1100 mark on weaker USD, lacks follow-through ahead of ECB

• EUR/USD scales higher for the second straight day and draws support from sustained USD selling.
• Bets that the Fed will soon end its rate-hiking cycle and the upbeat market mood undermine the buck.
• Investors now look to the crucial ECB meeting for a fresh impetus ahead of the key US macro data.

The EUR/USD pair gains some positive traction for the second straight day on Thursday and moves back above the 1.1100 round-figure mark during the Asian session. Spot prices recover further from a nearly two-week low, around mid-1.1000s touched on Tuesday and remain well supported by some follow-through US Dollar (USD) selling.

In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, extends its pullback from a two-week high touched on Tuesday in the wake of firming expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The USD bulls, meanwhile, seem rather unimpressed by the fact that the Fed left the door open for one more interest rate hike in September or November. It is worth mentioning that Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking to the post after the widely expected 25 bps lift-off on Wednesday, said that the economy still needs to slow and the labour market to weaken for inflation to credibly return to the 2% target.

Furthermore, hopes for more stimulus from China remain supportive of the underlying bullish sentiment across the global equity markets. This is seen as another factor weighing on the safe-haven USD, which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. It, however, remains to be seen if bulls can capitalize on the move or opt to lighten the bets ahead of the crucial European Central Bank (ECB) meeting this Thursday. The markets have been pricing in the possibility that the ECB will increase borrowing costs in July and September.

Moreover, the minutes of the ECB meeting held in June revealed that policymakers remain determined to continue the current hiking cycle to bring inflation back to target. That said, ECB officials recently delivered mixed signals regarding the next policy moves on the back of emerging signs of a cooling economy. The fears were further fueled by this week's disappointing release of the flash Euro Zone PMIs, which pointed to a sharp slowdown in business activity across the region. This, in turn, might cap gains for the EUR/USD pair.

Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets heading into the key central bank event risk and ahead of important US macro releases, due later during the early North American session. Thursday's US economic docket features the Advance Q2 GDP print, Durable Goods Order, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales data. This, along with the post-ECB volatility, should provide some meaningful impetus to the EUR/USD pair and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities.

Technical levels to watch