USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears occupy driver’s seat near 139.00 amid talks of BoJ’s YCC tweak

• USD/JPY remains pressured at the lowest level in a week, prints five-day downtrend ahead of Japan inflation, BoJ.
• Chatters that BoJ will drop its 0.5% limit on the 10-year JGB bolstered Yen during late Thursday.
• Bears approach yearly horizontal support within rising trend channel established since December 2022, recovery remains elusive below May’s peak.
• Bearish MACD signals, downside break of 50% Fibonacci retracement keep Yen pair sellers hopeful.

USD/JPY bears flirt with the 139.00 round figure during a five-day losing streak ahead of Friday’s Tokyo open. In doing so, the Yen pair justifies the latest chatters surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) likely edit to the +/- 0.50% limit of the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields ahead of Japan inflation data and the BoJ monetary policy announcements.

Also read: Breaking: USD/JPY bears firm on a strong hint that BoJ will drop 0.5% cap in 10Y JGB yields

Technically, the bearish MACD signals join the Yen pair’s downside break of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to January 2023 fall, near 139.60 by the press time, to favor the USD/JPY sellers.

With this, the Yen pair appears well set to prod the horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since December 2022, close to 138.00-137.80.

Following that, a convergence of the 200-DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, close to 136.70, will precede the bottom line of a seven-month-old rising channel surrounding 135.60, to limit the USD/JPY downside.

On the contrary, a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 139.60 and the 140.00 round figure may initially restrict the USD/JPY recovery ahead of directing the bulls to May’s high of near 140.95, quickly followed by the 141.00 round figure.

It’s worth noting, however, that the Yen pair buyers will remain confused unless witnessing a clear upside break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 142.52, backed by the dovish BoJ stand.

USD/JPY: Daily chart

Trend: Limited downside expected