USD/INR Price Analysis: Indian Rupee pares weekly losses above 100-EMA as US inflation cues loom

• USD/INR snaps three-day winning streak while consolidating recovery from 12-week low.
• Upbeat oscillators, sustained trading above the key EMAs, support lines keep Indian Rupee bears hopeful.
• Sustained downside break of multi-day-old symmetrical triangle becomes necessary for pair sellers to retake control.
• Bulls have a bumpy road to travel as 23.6% Fibonacci retracement guards immediate upside.

USD/INR pares the first weekly gain in three while posting mild losses around 82.20 on Friday morning in India. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair prints the first daily fall in four as markets brace for the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, namely, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for June, expected 4.2% YoY versus 4.6% prior.

Despite the USD/INR pair’s latest retreat, the 100-Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 82.15 by the press time, restricts the immediate downside of the pair.

Following that, a convergence of an upward-sloping support line stretched from Tuesday and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its late January-February upside, near the 82.00 round figure, will challenge the USD/INR bears.

In a case where the Indian Rupee pair drops below 82.00, the bottom line of a symmetrical triangle connecting levels marked since March, currently between 82.80 and 81.85, will be in the spotlight.

It’s worth observing that the 200-EMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, near 81.70, appears a tough nut to crack for the USD/INR bears.

On the contrary, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the previously stated multi-day-old symmetrical triangle’s top line, respectively near 82.60 and 82.80, can challenge the USD/INR buyers during the fresh upside.

That said, the intraday buyers will wait for a fresh weekly high, around 82.40 by the press time, to initiate long positions.

USD/INR: Daily chart

Trend: Recovery expected