WTI holds above $81.30, near the multi-month top

• WTI holds above $81.30 after retreating from $81.75, the highest level since mid-April.
• OPEC crude oil output fell by 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) from June to July to 27.34 million bpd.
• Chinese authorities announced additional policy guidelines; investors will keep an eye on the update. 
• China announced export restrictions on some drones and drone-related equipment to the US.

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around the $81.50 mark so far on Tuesday. WTI prices retreat from $81.75, the highest since April 17.

WTI prices have risen for the fifth consecutive month due to expectations that Saudi Arabia will prolong voluntary output cutbacks into September and tighten global supply. That said, Saudi Arabia is set to extend a voluntary oil production limit of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) until September. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil output fell by 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) from June to July, to 27.34 million bpd, according to Reuters. 

Regarding the Chinese data, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed on Monday that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased to 49.3 in July, improving from 49.0 in June and the market's estimate of 49.2. However, the figure was marked below 50 for the fourth straight month, indicating the contraction zone. Meanwhile, the NBS Services PMI fell from 53.2 in June to 51.5 in July.

The disappointing data fuels concern about the economic slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. However, Chinese authorities announced additional policy guidelines on Monday, but no specific plans to bolster the faltering economy and domestic consumption, leaving investors wanting as lackluster activity data increased pressure on officials to act. The development of the headline might support further upside in the WTI price.

On the other hand, the escalating tensions between the US-China over access to technology might exert some pressure on WTI prices. On Monday, China announced export restrictions on some drones and drone-related equipment to the US, citing "national security and interests”. The restriction will go into effect on September 1, according to the commerce ministry.

Moving on, oil traders will focus on the headlines surrounding the development of more stimulus plans in China and the renewed tension between the US-China later in the day. The attention will shift to the US employment data. The JOLTS Job Openings report, ADP Private Employment, Weekly Jobless Claims, and Unit Labour Cost will be released later this week. The week's key event is the Nonfarm Payrolls report, due on Friday. These events could significantly impact the USD-denominated WTI price. Oil traders will take cues from the data and find trading opportunities around the WTI price.