EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro nears key 1.0980 hurdle as Eurozone Retail Sales, US NFP loom

• EUR/USD picks up bids to extend the previous day’s rebound from 100-SMA.
• Convergence of previous support line, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement challenge Euro bulls.
• Germany Factory Orders, Eurozone PPI and US NFP will also prod EUR/USD upside.
• Key Fibonacci retracement levels may test the Euro bears on breaking key moving average support.

EUR/USD clings to mild gains around 1.0960 as traders in Europe brace for a volatile Friday filled with multiple top-tier data/events. While preparing for the key catalysts, the Euro pair defends the previous day’s recovery from the 100-SMA as it struggles to overcome the one-month low.

Among the front-line data, Germany’s Factory Orders and Eurozone Retail Sales for June will offer immediate directions ahead of the US employment report for July. That said, headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) bears downbeat market forecasts, likely softening to 200K versus 209K prior. Further, the Unemployment Rate is likely to remain static at 3.6%.

Also read: EUR/USD: Strong yields prod Euro optimists near 1.0950, Eurozone Retail Sales, US NFP eyed

Technically, a convergence of the previous support line stretched from May 31 joins 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of March-July upside to highlight 1.0980 as an important challenge for the EUR/USD buyers.

Following that, the 1.1000 round figure and the 21-SMA surrounding 1.1075 can prod the EUR/USD bulls before giving them control.

On the flip side, a daily closing beneath the 100-SMA level of 1.0920 becomes necessary to recall the Euro bears.

In that case, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and July’s low, respectively near 1.0900 and 1.0830, will check the downside bias ahead of the all-important 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0800, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio.

EUR/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Limited upside expected