NZD/USD clings to modest recovery gains, struggles to capitalize on move beyond 0.6100

• NZD/USD attracts some buyers on Friday and moves further away from a multi-week low.
• A positive risk tone undermines the safe-haven USD and benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi.
• Bets for more rate hikes by the Fed limit the USD losses and caps gains ahead of the NFP.

The NZD/USD pair gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday and moves further away from its lowest level since late June, around the 0.6060 area touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade just a few pips below the daily peak, though seem to struggle to capitalize on the intraday strength beyond the 0.6100 round-figure mark.

The US Dollar (USD) remains on the defensive below a four-week peak touched on Thursday and turns out to be a key factor lending some support to the NZD/USD pair. A positive tone around the US equity futures undermines the safe-haven Greenback amid some repositioning trade ahead of the key US data risk and benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi. That said, the prospects for further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) act as a tailwind for the buck and keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the major, at least for the time being.

The incoming US macro data points to an extremely resilient economy and continues to fuel speculations that US central bank will have enough headroom to keep interest rates higher for longer. This, in turn, keeps the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond elevated near its highest level since late October 2022 and should limit any corrective USD decline. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and prefer to wait for the release of the crucial US NFP report, due later during the early North American session.

The closely-watched US monthly employment details will influence market expectations about the Fed's future rate-hike path and play a key role in driving demand for the buck in the near term. This, in turn, will help investors to determine the next leg of a directional move for the NZD/USD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the recent downfall witnessed over the past three weeks or so has run its course. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to end in the red for the third successive week.

Technical levels to watch