AUD/USD posts modest gains around the 0.6570 mark, Australia/US inflation eyed

• AUD/USD posts modest gains around 0.7575, up 0.06% for the day.
• The US Nonfarm Payrolls rose 187,000 in July, worse than expected at 200,000.
• China will lift its anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Australian barley imports effective August 5.
• Investors await the Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, US CPI and the Produce Price Index (PPI).

The AUD/USD pair kicks off the new week on a positive note and gains traction near 0.6575 during the Asian session on Monday. The uptick in the Aussie is supported by the softer US employment data released on Friday.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that the Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose 187,000 in July, worse than expected by 200,000. The figures in June were revised down to 185,000. This marked the lowest reading since December 2020.

Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6%. The annual wage inflation, as measured by changes in Average Hourly Earnings, came in at 4.4%, higher than the market estimation of 4.2%. Finally, the Labour Force Participation remained unchanged at 62.6%. The softer data indicated a sluggish labour market in the US, which could convince the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates and cap the upside for the USD.

On the Aussie front, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Phillip Lowe remarked that the decision to keep rates intact gives the RBA more time to analyse the impact of the interest rate hikes and the economic outlook. However, more monetary policy tightening may be necessary to guarantee that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but this will depend on the data and the developing risk assessment.

About the data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed last week that the Australian Trade Balance was A$11,321M, marginally lower than the A$11.791M recorded in May. Exports declined 2% as coal, mineral fuels, and metals shipments slowed in response to a decline in commodity demand in China. However, the decline in exports was offset by a 4% decline in imports in May. Meanwhile, Retail Sales QoQ came in at -0.5% from -0.6% prior.

Furthermore, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday that China will lift its anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Australian barley imports effective August 5. This, in turn, boosts the Australian Dollar against its rivals.

It’s worth noting that China’s Caixin Services PMI climbed to 54.1 in July from 53.9 prior, better than the market consensus of 52.5. The upbeat Chinese economic figure could also benefit the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD).

Market participants will digest the data on Friday due to the absence of the economic data release from Australia on the Bank holiday. On Wednesday, attention will shift to the Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY. Also, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July and the Produce Price Index (PPI) will be due later this week. Market players anticipate a 0.2% monthly increase in US CPI. The data will be critical for determining a clear movement for the AUD/USD pair.