AUD/USD Price Analysis: Renews YTD low as bears approach 0.6410 support with eyes on FOMC Minutes

• AUD/USD takes offers to refresh yearly bottom during seven-day downtrend.
• Sustained downside break of key support line, bearish MACD signals favor Aussie sellers.
• Descending trend line from March, oversold RSI (14) suggests limited downside room.
• Fed Minutes need to push back policy pivot concerns to keep AUD/USD on bear’s radar.

AUD/USD stands on slippery grounds near 0.6430 as it renews the Year-To-Date (YTD) low during the seven-day losing streak early Wednesday. In doing so, the Aussie pair justifies its risk barometer status ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting minutes.

Also read: AUD/USD steadies at yearly low around mid-0.6400s amid sour sentiment ahead of Fed Minutes

Adding strength to the downside bias are the bearish MACD signals and the quote’s clear break of the previous key support line stretched from October 2022. Furthermore, Aussie pair’s sustained below the 10-DMA and a one-month-old descending trend line also favors the AUD/USD sellers.

However, the oversold conditions of the RSI (14) and likely disappointment for the US Dollar hawks from the Fed Minutes seem to prod the AUD/USD sellers as they approach a downward-sloping support line from March, close to 0.6410 at the latest.

In a case where the AUD/USD ignores RSI and justifies hawkish Fed Minutes, if any, the quote is likely to slump towards the late 2022 bottom of around 0.6170.

On the other hand, the 10-DMA restricts the immediate recovery of the Aussie pair near 0.6515.

However, a convergence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, a 10-month-old previous support line and a downward-sloping trend line from July 18 together constitute 0.6545-50 key resistance for the pair buyers to watch during the quote’s rebound.

Should the quote manages to stay firmer past 0.6550, lows marked during late June and early July around the 0.6600 mark will act as the last defense of the Aussie bears.

AUD/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Limited downside expected